Liverpool knows that it has left itself relying on favors in the race for Champions League qualification. A late run of six Premier League victories on the bounce has at least given Jürgen Klopp’s side a chance of finishing in the top four, but either Newcastle or Manchester United would still have to suffer multiple slip-ups before the end of the campaign to make that a reality.

Naturally, that has got Liverpool fans scrambling for the fixture list. Who could offer Klopp a helping hand between now and the end of the season? The remaining games for Newcastle, in particular, offer some degree of promise, with potential banana skins against two sides still fighting for their Premier League survival, plus the ever-tricky Brighton and a misfiring Chelsea side undoubtedly still packed full of talent.

As for Manchester United, its remaining four games look relatively routine on paper. Also with Chelsea to come, its highest-ranked remaining opponent is Fulham in 10th. Liverpool will have to rely upon the fact that it would seem quite on-brand for the Stamford Bridge side to decide the top-four race despite having absolutely nothing to play for.

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Of course, having any hope at all is also reliant on Liverpool getting its own job done, a process that will involve a tricky meeting with Aston Villa. But before its next game against Leicester, it will watch both Newcastle and Manchester United in action today, which should give a better indication of its top-four hopes.

There’s no perfect way to gauge how these remaining games might go, but looking at the results from the reverse Premier League fixtures is as good a guide as any.

The first thing that jumps out is that this race is far from over when it comes to Newcastle. The Magpies dropped points in each of its next two corresponding fixtures, only managing 0-0 draws against both Leeds and Brighton earlier in the season.

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Unfortunately for Liverpool, it would take at least six dropped points to reel Newcastle back in. Repeats of its wins over Leicester and Chelsea respectively (3-0 and 1-0) would be enough to secure Champions League football ahead of Klopp’s side.

Manchester United only needs to draw twice to let Liverpool back in, and the Reds’ superior goal difference would more or less guarantee that this would be enough, provided Klopp delivers three more wins. However, the reverse fixtures fall just short of this reality: while Erik ten Hag drew 1-1 against Chelsea, he masterminded victories in all of the other games.

These results would render Liverpool’s final three matches irrelevant in terms of the top four picture. For what it’s worth, though, Klopp did win each of the corresponding three remaining fixtures — no small feat, given how wins have been in short supply over the course of the campaign.

Repeats of all those results would leave an agonizing final Premier League table. Liverpool would finish on 71 points, which has been enough to secure Champions League football in each of the last five seasons. But it would be pipped to the post by Newcastle and Manchester United, each on 73 points.

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