OU pledge Gatorade Oklahoma Softball best Player of the Year.

OU pledge Gatorade Oklahoma Softball best Player of the Year.

How teams should fare in their new conferences, by the numbers

It’s official: Oklahoma is in the SEC, as reflected on the scoreboard at Memorial Stadium in Norman. AP Photo/Cliff Brunt

Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Jul 3, 2024, 06:50 AM ET
Share
LikeLike
Open Extended Reactions
LikeFire
110
The moves we’ve talked about for so long as part of a power struggle, of some abstract future, are now concrete. This week, almost three years after it was officially announced, Oklahoma and Texas officially became members of the Southeastern Conference. In another month, the rest of the seismic recent conference realignment moves — Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington to the Big Ten; Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah to the Big 12; Cal, Stanford and SMU to the ACC — will also become official. The future is now, whether or not it makes any sense.

We’ll still have plenty of jarring moments of realization this fall — when UCLA visits Rutgers in mid-October, for instance, or when Cal visits Wake Forest in early November (or when we get to the end of the season and Oklahoma didn’t play Oklahoma State — but for all of the unique matchups to come, how are these teams going to actually fare? How would they have fared last season? And how do things normally work when a team changes conferences? Let’s look into it.

Where teams would have ranked in their new conferences last season
Using 2023’s SP+ rankings, let’s set the table by first looking at how the hierarchy would have taken shape for each conference with its new members. (New members for 2024 in bold.)

SEC

2. Georgia (13-1)
6. Texas (12-2)
7. Alabama (12-2)
10. Missouri (11-2)
11. LSU (10-3)
12. Ole Miss (11-2)
14. Tennessee (9-4)
16. Texas A&M (7-6)
17. Oklahoma (10-3)
22. Kentucky (7-6)
36. Auburn (6-7)
41. Florida (5-7)
51. South Carolina (5-7)
54. Arkansas (4-8)
62. Mississippi State (5-7)
110. Vanderbilt (2-10)

After winning at Alabama in Week 2 and reaching the College Football Playoff, Texas finished in a predictable range in SP+, while Oklahoma, benefiting from a relatively light schedule, went 2-2 against SP+ top-25 teams and 8-1 against everyone else and finished 17th overall. Both teams are projected to stay about the same in terms of overall quality — Texas is projected fourth, Oklahoma 15th — which makes the Longhorns a likely CFP contender, and leaves the Sooners, who would have been sandwiched between two 7-6 teams last season, projected to win seven to eight games.

Big Ten

1. Michigan (15-0)
3. Oregon (12-2)
4. Ohio State (11-2)
5. Penn State (10-3)
13. Washington (14-1)
21. Maryland (8-5)
27. UCLA (8-5)
29. Wisconsin (7-6)
31. USC (8-5)
47. Iowa (10-4)
56. Rutgers (7-6)
63. Minnesota (6-7)
66. Nebraska (5-7)
69. Northwestern (8-5)
75. Illinois (5-7)
88. Michigan State (4-8)
90. Purdue (4-8)
92. Indiana (3-9)

The Big Ten is always a top-heavy conference, with heavyweights like Michigan and Ohio State at one end and quite a few mediocre-at-best teams at the other. It would have been amazingly top heavy last year with such good Oregon and Washington teams. (And yes, here’s your reminder that SP+ didn’t love Washington last season despite the run to the national title game. The Huskies went 8-0 in one-score finishes; SP+ attempts to measure sustainability, and there’s nothing sustainable about that. It was incredibly fun to watch, though.)

Big 12

15. Kansas State (9-4)
18. Arizona (10-3)
25. Kansas (9-4)
32. Utah (8-5)
35. TCU (5-7)
37. Iowa State (7-6)
38. West Virginia (9-4)
42. Oklahoma State (10-4)
43. Texas Tech (7-6)
57. UCF (6-7)
76. BYU (5-7)
81. Colorado (4-8)
87. Cincinnati (3-9)
95. Houston (4-8)
97. Baylor (3-9)
107. Arizona State (3-9)

Like Washington, Oklahoma State rode a run of close wins (5-1 in one-score finishes) to a surprise Big 12 championship game bid, but the Cowboys might not have actually been one of the best teams in the conference. Arizona and Utah, however, might have been. In a Texas- and Oklahoma-free Big 12 universe, the battle for the title game might have included as many as eight or nine teams. This year’s race might too. I can’t wait.

(Another reminder: Colorado was still very bad last season. But we’ll come back to that.)

EDITOR’S PICKS

ACC 2024 preview: Can newcomers challenge Florida State and Clemson?
1dBill Connelly

Are Texas and Oklahoma ready for the SEC?
2dChris Low

Counting flagpoles, sanding courts and scrapping uniforms: Inside the logistical challenges of moving conferences
2dDave Wilson and Paolo Uggetti
ACC

9. Florida State (13-1)
23. Clemson (9-4)
24. SMU (11-3)
28. Miami (7-6)
30. Duke (8-5)
34. Louisville (10-4)
39. NC State (9-4)
40. North Carolina (8-5)
46. Virginia Tech (7-6)
65. Georgia Tech (7-6)
67. California (6-7)
80. Syracuse (6-7)
83. Boston College (7-6)
91. Pitt (3-9)
96. Wake Forest (4-8)
105. Virginia (3-9)
108. Stanford (3-9)

Of the ACC’s three new additions, it was the Group of 5 team, SMU, that would have had the most success. The Mustangs were excellent in 2023, at least until quarterback Preston Stone got injured. They still held on to beat Tulane for the AAC championship without him, but they performed poorly in a bowl loss to Boston College. They’ll get a revenge attempt this fall.

AAC and Conference USA

Two teams are joining Group of 5 conferences this year, too: Army (AAC) and FBS newcomer Kennesaw State (Conference USA). Army would have ranked fifth in the extremely top-heavy AAC, behind the league’s heavyweights — SMU, Tulane, Memphis and UTSA, who went a combined 41-13 in 2023 — and ahead of everyone else.

Kennesaw State, meanwhile, deployed an extremely redshirt-heavy roster in anticipation of its 2024 transition — by my count, 18 Owls played exactly four games — and, predictably, wasn’t very good. The Owls went just 3-6 against an easy schedule and finished 52nd in FCS SP+. They would have ranked last nationally in FBS SP+, slightly behind Kent State.

How newcomers are projected to fare this season
Using my SP+ projections, let’s look at how everyone’s likely to fare. What teams are taking on harder and more ambitious schedules? Whose are lightening up quite a bit?

Harder schedules
Seven teams are facing slates that are at least a bit more difficult than last year’s.

Kennesaw State (FCS to Conference USA)

SP+ projection: 130th

Projected wins: 3.3 overall, 2.3 in conference

Strength of schedule ranking: 121st

KSU’s transitional schedule featured multiple Division II opponents, so even with an SOS ranking of just 121st, this is obviously an upgrade. That said, Brian Bohannon’s Owls will still face quite a few teams in their general quality vicinity — seven opponents are projected 110th or worse in SP+ (or are in FCS). They’ll have a shot at some wins, even if they aren’t quite ready to handle any of their four projected top-60 opponents.

Oklahoma (Big 12 to SEC)

SP+ projection: 15th (last year: 17th)

Projected wins: 7.5 overall, 3.6 in conference (last year: 10-3)

Strength of schedule ranking: third (last year: 52nd at end of regular season)

For years, Oklahoma fans complained about a lack of thrilling, big-name regular-season opponents. For better or worse, the Sooners are getting what they evidently craved this fall.

Not every SEC team plays elite teams week in and week out, no matter what SEC fans want to tell you, but after a light nonconference slate, Oklahoma damn near does exactly that. Of its eight SEC opponents, six are projected 16th or better in SP+, and the worst of the bunch is No. 43 South Carolina. SP+ projects the Sooners as one of the 15 best teams in America … and gives them only a 7% chance of going 10-2 or better. The average top-five team could expect a win percentage of only .796 (about 9.5 wins) against this slate. Rough stuff.

Oregon (Pac-12 to Big Ten)

SP+ projection: third (last year: third)

Projected wins: 10.4 overall, 7.5 in conference (last year: 12-2)

Strength of schedule ranking: 26th (last year: 42nd)

While the Pac-12 was as good as it had ever been last fall, Oregon’s regular-season strength of schedule was a little weaker than others’, at least in part because, well, the Ducks didn’t have to play the Ducks.

Their 2024 schedule isn’t the toughest Big Ten slate imaginable, but Oregon does host projected No. 2 Ohio State while visiting No. 6 Michigan. Including a visit from Boise State in nonconference play, the Ducks play six projected top-40 teams in all. It’s manageable, but it’s still potentially harder than last year’s schedule.

SMU (AAC to ACC)

SP+ projection: 23rd (last year: 24th)

Projected wins: 9.1 overall, 5.6 in conference (last year: 11-3)

Strength of schedule ranking: 84th (last year: 95th)

The upgrade isn’t as much as you would think for a team jumping from the Group of 5 to the Power 4 (or whatever we’re calling the group of power conferences now). The ACC has six projected top-30 teams (including SMU), but Rhett Lashlee’s Mustangs are scheduled to play only two of them: Florida State in Week 6, then at Louisville in Week 7. Otherwise, if they’re really a top-30 team like SP+ thinks, they could be favored in as many as 10 games.

Texas (Big 12 to SEC)

SP+ projection: fourth (last year: sixth)

Projected wins: 9.9 overall, 6.4 in conference (last year: 12-2)

Strength of schedule ranking: 14th (last year: 33rd)

Compared to Oklahoma, Texas got off easy in its 2024 SEC draw; the only reason the Longhorns are ranked even 14th in SOS is because of a nonconference trip to Michigan in Week 2. They face an utterly titanic Week 8 visit from top-ranked Georgia one week after their Red River Rivalry game against OU, but the only other top-20 SEC opponent on the schedule is Texas A&M over Thanksgiving weekend.

Texas and Texas A&M playing each other. In football. What a concept.

UCLA (Pac-12 to Big Ten)

SP+ projection: 26th (last year: 27th)

Projected wins: 6.2 overall, 4.4 in conference (last year: 8-5)

Strength of schedule ranking: 13th (last year: 62nd)

Aside from Oklahoma, no one is taking on a bigger leap in schedule strength than Deshaun Foster’s first UCLA team. The Bruins start with navigable games against Hawaii and Indiana, but in Weeks 4-6, they will play at LSU (No. 9, per SP+), home against No. 3 Oregon and at No. 7 Penn State. They’ve got two more top-25 opponents in November, too, one far away (at Iowa) and one nearby (home vs. USC).

Even with a top-30 projection — ambitious considering the rookie head coach and a lack of star power at QB — SP+ gives the Bruins only a 69% chance of bowling. If they’re merely a top-40 or top-50 team, they’re probably staying home during bowl season.

USC (Pac-12 to Big Ten)

SP+ projection: 21st (last year: 31st)

Projected wins: 6.4 overall, 4.8 in conference (last year: 8-5)

Strength of schedule ranking: 11th (last year: 23rd)

It’s a similar story for Lincoln Riley’s Trojans. Their first actual Big Ten schedule includes only a couple of heavyweights — at Michigan in Week 4, Penn State in Week 7 — but they’ve got four other top-40 opponents on the conference slate, and their nonconference schedule is absolutely brutal: LSU in Las Vegas in Week 1 (that’s right, LSU is playing both L.A. schools) and Notre Dame over Thanksgiving. Despite projected improvement, USC is looking at only a 71% chance of bowling and a 2% chance of going 10-2 or better.

Easier schedules
A lot of the biggest names in this realignment batch are staring at more ambitious schedules, but in part because the Pac-12 was so good last year, seven of last year’s Pac-12 teams are facing lighter schedules this fall. Strangely, so is Army despite the move to the AAC.

Arizona State (Pac-12 to Big 12)

SP+ projection: 88th (last year: 107th)

Projected wins: 3.4 overall, 2.0 in conference (last year: 3-9)

Strength of schedule ranking: 46th (last year: 16th)

ASU went 3-9 the hard way in Kenny Dillingham’s first season in charge, going just 1-3 against teams ranked 60th or worse in SP+ but upsetting two of eight top-50 opponents. I guess it’s not a guarantee, then, that the Sun Devils will improve their win total despite now playing five teams projected 67th or worse. But with three relative toss-ups right out of the gate in nonconference play (Wyoming, Mississippi State, at Texas State), this season could go in about a thousand different directions.

Army (Independent to AAC)

SP+ projection: 95th (last year: 79th)

Projected wins: 6.4 overall, 4.3 in conference (last year: 6-6)

Strength of schedule ranking: 102nd (last year: 81st)

Army played two FCS opponents last year, but this schedule is still weaker? Yep. That’s what happens when you go from playing four top-50 opponents to one. Even with just one FCS foe, 10 of Army’s 12 games come against teams projected 89th or worse. Lots of win opportunities for the Black Knights as they try to rebound from recent slippage.

Cal (Pac-12 to ACC)

SP+ projection: 52nd (last year: 67th)

Projected wins: 6.1 overall, 3.5 in conference (last year: 6-7)

Strength of schedule ranking: 49th (last year: ninth)

With spectacular running back Jaydn Ott and a turnover-hungry defense, Cal took full advantage of the weak spots on last year’s schedule, going 5-0 against teams ranked 50th or worse in SP+. Of course, that means the Golden Bears went 1-7 against everyone else. This year the ratio shifts slightly, with seven sub-50 teams on the docket, so if they pull the same “beat bad teams, lose to good ones” routine, they’ll be bowling again in their first season in a conference with “Atlantic” in the title.

I suggest they try actually beating good teams, though. It’s fun.

Colorado (Pac-12 to Big 12)

SP+ projection: 69th (last year: 81st)

Projected wins: 3.8 overall, 2.5 in conference (last year: 4-8)

Strength of schedule ranking: 45th (last year: 21st)

A lot of people are stepping on the Colorado rake again. Despite last season’s post-September collapse, each week brings a new social media clip of a TV analyst predicting Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes to win the Big 12, and EA Sports seems to thinks very highly of the Buffs — they evidently have the 16th-best team in the country in the forthcoming NCAA video game.

The Buffs do still have Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, and I actually like the offensive and defensive line additions Sanders made far more than last year’s. They should be a better team, and their schedule shouldn’t feature any outright heavyweights. But it still includes seven opponents projected 42nd or better (four in the top 25), and they’ll have to improve pretty significantly to even bowl.

Oregon State (Pac-12 to independent)

SP+ projection: 55th (last year: 19th)

Projected wins: 7.5 overall (last year: 8-5)

Strength of schedule ranking: 77th (last year: 31st)

You could say that, by some margin, Oregon State was exactly the 19th-best team in the country last season, going 0-4 against teams ranked 18th or better (two close losses, two blowouts) and 8-1 against everyone else. With only two top-50 opponents on 2024’s slate, the 19th-best team in the country would be looking at a pretty spectacular season, but the Beavers got hit terribly hard by attrition and are projected to fall out of the top 50 themselves.

Still, they’ll have to fall even further than that to miss out on a solid 8-4-ish season. For all of the horrible luck they suffered in the last round of realignment, at least they’ve still got plenty of wins on the schedule.

Stanford (Pac-12 to ACC)

SP+ projection: 84th (last year: 108th)

Projected wins: 3.8 overall, 2.0 in conference (last year: 3-9)

Strength of schedule ranking: 33rd (last year: first)

Stanford played five of last year’s top 19 teams, plus two more ranked 31st or better. That was a bit much for a team undergoing a total on-field reset; its record against these seven teams was 0-7 with one narrow loss and six others by an average score of 50-16. Troy Taylor’s Cardinal return most of last year’s two-deep and should absolutely improve, but while the schedule eases up a hair, they’re still looking at seven games against top-40 foes, three of which are at least two time zones away. This isn’t the hardest schedule in the country this time, but it still isn’t easy.

Utah (Pac-12 to Big 12)

SP+ projection: 18th (last year: 32nd)

Projected wins: 9.4 overall, 7.5 in conference (last year: 8-5)

Strength of schedule ranking: 81st (last year: 13th)

Despite full-season quarterback uncertainty (and the customary absence of big plays and easy points), Utah, like Oregon State, played exactly to its level in 2023, going 0-4 against SP+ top-20 teams and 8-0 against everyone else (at least until a meek bowl loss to Northwestern). This year, the Utes get quarterback Cam Rising back, and the schedule eases up dramatically. They do still face three top-30 teams (at Oklahoma State, Arizona, Iowa State), but with seven opponents projected outside the top 60, the floor for their win total is awfully high.

Washington State (Pac-12 to independent)

SP+ projection: 59th (last year: 50th)

Projected wins: 7.6 overall (last year: 5-7)

Strength of schedule ranking: 99th (last year: 29th)

Wazzu in no way played to its level in 2023, beating two top-30 opponents early, then losing to back-to-back sub-100 teams late to finish 5-7. The Cougs were evidently a big-games-only team, which could be awkward this season when there aren’t nearly as many big games. They play three teams projected between 35th and 42nd early on, but posting a big win total will hinge on a run of four straight later games against teams ranked 100th or worse.

Schedule strength about the same
Arizona (Pac-12 to Big 12)

SP+ projection: 24th (last year: 18th)

Projected wins: 8.6 overall, 6.2 in conference (last year: 10-3)

Strength of schedule ranking: 55th (last year: 53rd)

Arizona began the season 3-3 and ranked 49th in SP+ heading into October, but the Wildcats surged late, winning their last seven games and finishing 18th. They have a new head coach and plenty of new faces, but quarterback Noah Fifita & Co. will have a shot at a lovely start in their new league. After facing two top-20 opponents (Kansas State and Utah) on the road in September, they don’t see a single top-30 foe in the last two months. If the Wildcats are up for it, they’ll have a shot at another great finish.

Washington (Pac-12 to Big Ten)

SP+ projection: 35th (last year: 13th)

Projected wins: 6.5 overall, 3.8 in conference (last year: 14-1)

Strength of schedule ranking: 16th (last year: 12th)

Losing head coach Kalen DeBoer and stars Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze (among many others) could create quite a setback this season, even before we consider the wrath of the close games god. The schedule won’t provide much relief: The Huskies have a relatively light September, but in their last seven games, they’ll play seven teams projected 26th or better, including three in the top 10. This isn’t harder than last year’s path, but it’s not much easier either.

How this normally works
It’s easy to get lost in the weeds analyzing how a program is going to fare against a new set of league opponents. How much is its recruiting base going to change? What changes might it need to make stylistically? Things like that.

But recent big realignment moves have basically taught us three things: (1) If your program is well run, you’re going to be fine; (2) if it’s not, you’re not; and (3) if you’re joining a better league, your average win total is probably going to drop a bit. Here’s a quick look at eight programs that made noteworthy moves in the first half of the 2010s.

Texas A&M and Missouri to the SEC
When A&M and Mizzou fled the increasingly dramatic Big 12 for the SEC in 2012, fans of both the Aggies and Tigers, after being told for a solid year about how the “SEC grind” would wear their teams down, got to take early satisfaction in how they performed. A&M surged to 11-2 in its very first season, beating Alabama with Heisman winner Johnny Manziel. Meanwhile, after quarterback injury issues derailed its first season in the league, Missouri won the SEC East in its second and third seasons.

All in all, the move has worked out pretty well for both programs, albeit in different ways.

Bill Connelly
A&M has recruited like a big dog from its first day in the league; the Aggies battled inconsistency in the 2000s, but they’ve been consistently good since joining the SEC. The problem: They’ve been good in the hardest division in college football. “Grind” or no grind, the Aggies play lots of very good teams and lose to some of them. This is a top-15 to top-20 program, but as Oklahoma might learn in 2024, with the wrong schedule that can still result in going 7-5.

Bill Connelly
Mizzou found some early success in the SEC East, something that will be forfeited now that divisional play is no longer a thing. But the Tigers’ tenure has been remarkable in that they were basically the exact same program before and after the move: one capable of top-15 performances, but one with a floor lower than that of A&M and others.

Other Big 12 departures
Colorado and Nebraska also left the Big 12 in the early 2010s. Their respective fates haven’t been as solid as those of A&M and Missouri, but it’s hard to say that was because of the moves. Both programs battled regression and identity crises in the 2000s, and changing conferences most certainly didn’t arrest those slides.

Bill Connelly
Colorado suffered five consecutive losing seasons before leaving the Big 12, and the bottoming-out that occurred in the Pac-12 would have happened in any conference. The Buffaloes’ entire Pac-12 life was, aside from one lovely run in 2016, a fruitless search for traction.

Bill Connelly
Nebraska was still good in its final Big 12 years, winning either nine or 10 games in four of its last five seasons. But after the elite success of the previous decades, Huskers fans and administrators were not satisfied with good. NU fired Bo Pelini after seven consecutive nine- or 10-win seasons and proceeded to get lost in the wilderness. With just one winning season in nine years, the Huskers are in their worst run since the 1950s.

Was the Big Ten move in some way responsible for this slide? I really don’t think so. The recruiting base certainly changed a bit, but when you’re not living up to recruiting rankings, then recruiting itself isn’t the problem. This school has checked just about every box on the “how not to run a program” list — Rule No. 1: Don’t just hire the opposite of your ex and expect the opposite result — and that easily could have happened in the Big 12 too.

Maryland and Rutgers to the Big Ten
The Big Ten’s other major move in the 2010s added two programs that were, well, quite a bit less storied than Nebraska. They haven’t really made much noise either.

Bill Connelly
Maryland has remained Maryland — a program with occasional potential but consistency issues. But when you hit the 80th percentile, as the Terrapins have the past two years, there are plenty of wins to be found in the Big Ten.

Bill Connelly
As the chart shows, after the amazing surge of 2006, Rutgers had already begun to suffer diminishing returns. When Greg Schiano left for the pros in 2012, Kyle Flood held the fort for a moment, but collapse followed. With Schiano returning in 2020, an ascent has begun. We’ll see what the Scarlet Knights’ ceiling is.

Utah and TCU called up to the majors
The two teams that most obviously benefited from early-2010s realignment were the two elite mid-majors that found power-conference homes. They’ve provided two different types of examples for both SMU in 2024 and the four mid-majors (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF) that moved to the Big 12 last season.

Bill Connelly
It has bounced all over the place, but TCU’s 12-year percentile average has remained almost exactly the same before and after the move to the Big 12. The major difference: With harder schedules, the win total has dropped a decent amount. (As 2022’s run to the CFP national title game proved, however, the highs have been quite high.)

Bill Connelly
Utah is the model when it comes to meeting greater opportunity with slow and steady growth. The Utes enjoyed two brilliant seasons in the 2000s — unbeaten campaigns with BCS bowl wins in 2004 and 2008 — but they were less consistent than TCU in that period. With Kyle Whittingham running a steady ship, however, they have grown brilliantly consistent over the past decade. Of course, that improvement has basically produced the same win totals as before, but it’s impressive all the same.

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyInterest-Based Ads
© ESPN Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved.
Why the Klay Thompson era ended at Golden State
play
Relive Klay’s notable moments with the Warriors (2:37)
Ramona Shelburne
Kendra Andrews
Jul 3, 2024, 08:00 AM ET
Share
LikeLike
Open Extended Reactions
LikeWowLaugh
389
RIVIERA COUNTRY CLUB in Pacific Palisades is one of those places in Los Angeles where every room — every tree, even — has a famous Hollywood story behind it. Its 12th hole was Humphrey Bogart’s favorite to play and, later, where he’d sit and watch tournaments with a cup of bourbon. The sycamore on that hole was eventually named Bogey’s Tree.

Riviera was also where Tom Brady was spotted right after he retired in 2023 while his then-wife, Gisele Bundchen, took in the Met Gala in New York. The couple had attended that event together many times over the years, so seeing her shine in a feathery white gown on the same day Brady was chipping out of sand traps was the public end of their union, which had dissolved just a few months earlier.

Six weeks ago, the club’s famous golf course was the site of the end of the Golden State Warriors’ 13-year marriage to Klay Thompson. The team’s controlling owner, Joe Lacob, had invited Thompson to play a round with him at the exclusive course to show him respect, to try to strengthen a frayed bond with the franchise legend so that he might be willing to wait, to trust that the team still wanted him, even though negotiations on a new contract had long since gone south.

EDITOR’S PICKS

2024 NBA free agency roundtable: Early surprises, big moves and a star-studded East
1dESPN Insiders

Early NBA contender tiers after an Eastern Conference superstar shakeup
1dChris Herring

Inside the Paul George free agency showdown: How the Sixers landed the nine-time All-Star
1dRamona Shelburne
Thompson, 34, had spent his entire career with the Warriors. He had become a franchise icon, a symbol of an entire era. But even those closest to him in the organization often wondered if they really knew him. Assistant coach Bruce Fraser once said of Thompson, “If I was to choose my favorite book, it would be a book written by Klay Thompson when he’s 60. Because that’s when you’ll get everything that’s in his soul articulated.”

But over the past year, Thompson has been relatively easy to read. He was “miserable,” as one person close to him said. Miserable with how negotiations with the team had gone on a new contract. Miserable at the thought he wasn’t respected or valued by the franchise in the way his older Splash Brother, Stephen Curry, 36, and Draymond Green, 34, were. Miserable at his declining role on the team. And yes, miserable at the way his game and play had declined, as well.

The two years spent away from basketball as he rehabilitated from major leg injuries had forced Thompson to confront his basketball mortality. What his life was without basketball. What his identity was. He bought a boat, not to escape all these thoughts but to move through them even when his body could not. He read dozens of books and did sessions with motivational guru Tony Robbins. Thompson went spearfishing and challenged himself to hold his breath for several minutes.

His fight back to the court was one of the best stories in sports a few years ago. The Warriors’ NBA championship in 2022 was a testament to his resilience.

But everything since that championship has been off — the team, Thompson himself. The joy, such a hallmark of the Warriors’ dynastic run since 2015, had evaporated. The team wasn’t winning, either, going 90-74 the past two years and missing the playoffs this past season.

The duo of Klay Thompson, left, and Stephen Curry, center, dubbed the Splash Brothers, had been playing on the Warriors together since Thompson was drafted in 2011. (Draymond Green is also pictured.) (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/NBAE via Getty Images)
Thompson had felt disrespected, sources said, that the team didn’t offer him an extension the summer after it won that title. That feeling only deepened the following summer when Golden State was only willing to discuss two-year contracts in the range of $23 million to $24 million, instead of matching the four-year, $100 million deal Green had received.

Thompson did little to hide his feelings once the season started, and his actions increasingly became difficult to manage, exasperating even his loyalists in the locker room, sources said. He had several emotional meetings with Warriors coach Steve Kerr — a marked contrast from the days when Kerr dubbed him a “zero maintenance” star.

And so it was that Lacob invited Thompson out to play Riviera in mid-May. There was no set agenda. Lacob just wanted to connect with Thompson and to play. The invitation alone conveyed respect.

But in this case, it was just golf. There was no discussion of contracts or the team. No exploration of why Thompson had been so miserable all year. No drink out by Bogey’s Tree.

If either man had something to say that might have saved what had been one of the best basketball marriages in recent history, this would’ve been the time.

But sometimes there’s nothing left to say. The marriage is already over. All that’s left to decide is how to move on.

IN SOME WAYS, the Warriors had been moving on from Thompson since he blew out his left knee in the 2019 NBA Finals. They didn’t want to, but they had to find replacements for him while he missed two seasons with his injuries (torn ACL in 2019, torn Achilles in 2020).

When he returned in 2022, up-and-coming guard Jordan Poole moved back to a bench role so Thompson could start. But Poole’s mere presence — and contract situation — undercut Thompson’s role on the team. The Warriors prioritized extending Poole — for four years and $140 million — and young swingman Andrew Wiggins (four years, $109 million) over Thompson and Green the summer after they won a championship, which didn’t sit well with either of the two veterans, sources said.

Green’s frustrations and actions are well-documented at this point. But ultimately, he played out the season and played well enough to earn a new four-year contract in 2023. Thompson tried to do the same, scoring 22 points per game and shooting 41% on 3-pointers two seasons ago. But when it came time to discuss a new deal, the organization wasn’t ready to offer him the same years or salary it had given Green. Firstly, Green had the leverage of being a free agent in 2023. But perhaps more importantly, the Warriors were determined to maintain as much optionality with their books since the new collective bargaining agreement was set to kick in following the 2024 season.

The Warriors always told Thompson they wanted him back, sources said. But they also wanted him to wait, so they could make other moves first.

Thompson averaged 17.9 points in 77 games last season and shot 38.7% from beyond the arc, second worst in his career. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
By the time this offseason arrived, Thompson’s representatives had proposed at least four contracts to the team. Each time, throughout the season, the response from the Warriors was that Thompson and his camp needed to wait while the franchise tried to improve the team in other deals. Most notably, sources said, were efforts to trade for Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James, Brooklyn Nets swingman Mikal Bridges, LA Clippers star Paul George and Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen.

The Warriors didn’t know how much or how long they could re-sign Thompson for until they had answers on that other business. It was obvious: Thompson was not the priority.

The reason for this is fairly simple. After losing to the Lakers in the second round of the 2023 playoffs, the front office wanted to shake up the roster, sources said. But Kerr and the team “fought,” as one source put it, to keep the roster together. Going on a mini 4-1 run before the trade deadline bought the team time to play out the rest of this past season without a major trade. But the results at the end of the campaign — finishing 10th in the Western Conference and missing the playoffs entirely — were more conclusive.

Top stories of the week from
Get exclusive access to thousands of premium articles a year from top writers.
• One trade all 30 MLB teams should make »
• Ranking NFL teams’ under-25 talent »
• NBA free agency: Winners, losers, more »
More ESPN+ content »

The Warriors, as constructed, didn’t have enough. Which is unacceptable for the always-ambitious Lacob in any year. But especially with Curry’s prime years dwindling and the luxury tax bill soaring to historic levels.

The Warriors wanted Thompson to stay — but not in the starting role he had occupied for nearly a decade before his demotion in the middle of last season. He’d be a wise veteran if he returned, an Andre Iguodala-type of player, but not a leading man.

This was communicated to Thompson, sources said, and even though he was not thrilled with the idea, it was not a deal-breaker.

ABOUT A MONTH after the round of golf at Riviera, with his future at Golden State increasingly uncertain, Thompson had a revelation. After almost a year of despair, he needed an entirely new experience, sources said. Out of the fishbowl, away from all the history and people he had always known. Two weeks prior, Thompson’s camp had made one final offer to the Warriors, a two-year deal for roughly $20 million per season, sources said. The response was the same as it had been for nearly a year: We just can’t do it yet.

For five years, Thompson had been fighting to reclaim his position within the Warriors and be the player he was before his injuries. But that was never going to happen, no matter how hard he trained physically or mentally. Because the Warriors were not the same team, and he was not the same player.

The past two years had been miserable as they both tried to evolve, to accept their new realities. Rather than fight against the dying of the light, why not fight for something new?

Thompson loved watching the Dallas Mavericks run throughout the playoffs this year. He was intrigued by the young Oklahoma City Thunder. He had always wanted to play for the Lakers, in the uniform of his childhood idol, Kobe Bryant.

In the final week before free agency started on Saturday, Thompson met with Kerr in L.A. and told him all this, sources said. He called Green and Curry and told them he wanted a fresh start then asked them not to use their organizational clout to interfere with his negotiations with the team.

Then he called Lacob and general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. and asked them to help him get to a team of his choosing, via a sign-and-trade, if necessary.

Everyone understood and wished him well. This would be an amicable separation.

Dallas was his top choice. He loved the way the Mavericks played and believed he’d be an ideal fit alongside Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, sources said. He came into a dinner meeting with the Mavericks’ front office having studied tape of the team and already projecting out how he could help them.

Thompson expressed to Warriors coach Steve Kerr his enjoyment in watching the Mavs’ recent playoff run. Now, Thompson will be joining Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in Dallas. Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
The Mavericks were thrilled to get a player of Thompson’s ability and experience on such a reasonably priced contract. The team had a great run to get to the Finals this season, but sources said Dallas felt it needed more veteran leadership to build off the performance.

The Thunder also were interested in Thompson but ended up prioritizing big man Isaiah Hartenstein with their cap space.

NBA on ESPN+

Get access to exclusive original series, premium articles from our NBA insiders, the full 30 for 30 library and more. Sign up now to unlock everything ESPN+ has to offer.

That left the Lakers. His father’s team. His idol’s team. LeBron’s team. The team ultimately was willing to offer Thompson more years and more money than he accepted from Dallas. Sources said James was willing to take less and the Lakers were trying to make trades that would’ve cleared four years and nearly $80 million for Thompson.

James had several deep conversations with Thompson about the idea of playing together, sources said.

But something about playing for the Lakers apparently felt too much like playing for the Warriors. As one source close to him put it, “Would this be trading one fishbowl for another?”

All Thompson had talked about in the two weeks since he had decided and accepted that his time with the Warriors was over was wanting “new experiences” and a “fresh start.”

Dallas seemed like a better place to get that.

Mychal Thompson, who played for the Lakers from 1987 to 1991 and is a radio color commentator for the team, was ecstatic at the thought his son would finish his career with the hometown team. He tried to talk to his son about mooring the boat in Marina Del Rey and living in his new house in Hermosa Beach.

“I’m disappointed,” the elder Thompson told ESPN. “But maybe playing for the Lakers was more my dream than his.”

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyInterest-Based AdsManage Privacy Preferences
© ESPN Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved.

[7/3, 18:36] Man City Updates: Happy 53yrs old to Pep Guardiola handsome and young man.

teamtalk
teamtalk
Home
Transfer News
Paper Talk
Premier League

Teams
Your Say
Buy tickets

Login
Sign Up
Home
News
Pep Guardiola Urges Man City To Destroy Arsenal Transfer Plans By Organising Key Deal For Unstoppable Star
Pep Guardiola urges Man City to destroy Arsenal transfer plans by organising key deal for unstoppable star
James Holland 15 May 2023 8:49 AM
Pep Guardiola of Manchester City
Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola

Pep Guardiola has explained why Manchester City must tie down one of their best players to a new contract amid Arsenal threatening to steal him in a summer swoop.

There was another twist in the Premier League title race at the weekend as Arsenal were beaten 3-0 at home by Brighton. Goals from Julio Enciso, Deniz Undav and Pervis Estupinan saw Roberto de Zerbi’s side strengthen their grip on European qualification, while also leaving Arsenal’s title hopes in tatters.

Earlier on Sunday, City had eased past Everton with a 3-0 victory at Goodison Park, with Ilkay Gundogan notching a brace and Erling Haaland registering the 52nd goal of his stunning campaign.

Catch the Euros from anywhere in the world with ExpressVPN for less than £6 a month

Those two results mean City have a four-point lead with just three matches to play, while Arsenal have only two games left.

If Arsenal fail to beat Nottingham Forest on Saturday, or if City win their next league match against Chelsea, then Guardiola’s side will be crowned champions for the fifth time in six years.

One player who has been integral to City’s title push is central midfielder Ilkay Gundogan. The 32-year-old dominates the midfield pretty much every time he plays thanks to his tactical nous, tireless running and ability to get stuck in.

READ MORE: Arsenal legend admits need for ‘three or four players’ to close Man City gap, as limitations detailed

Gundogan, who was named City captain at the start of the season, has been in brilliant form of late. He managed two goals in the recent 2-1 home win over Leeds and repeated that achievement against Everton.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Southgate told England have major issue with ‘tap-in merchant’ Kane with poor form to lead to Bayern sale
Southgate told England have major issue with ‘tap-in merchant’ Kane with poor form to lead to Bayern sale
Man City transfers: Deadly first summer signing sealed; €120m superstar tipped to follow in stunning Barcelona swap
Man City transfers: Deadly first summer signing sealed; €120m superstar tipped to follow in stunning Barcelona swap
Gundogan intelligently flicked past Jordan Pickford for the opener, despite having his back to goal. He then set up Haaland with a perfect left-footed chip into the box.

Man City could torch Arsenal transfer objective
And City’s win was secured when the skipper got the better of Pickford by picking out the top corner from a free-kick.

Surprisingly, Gundogan has been linked with a shock move to Arsenal. Spanish newspaper Sport have claimed Arsenal are ‘interested’ in signing the German, should he fail to agree a new contract in Manchester.

Gundogan’s current City deal expires this summer, which means he would be available on a free transfer.

But Guardiola is having none of it. Following the victory against Everton, Guardiola explained how he wants City to torch Arsenal’s summer plans by sorting out fresh terms for Gundogan.

“He doesn’t talk much but when he does everybody listens, this is the power of a leader,” Guardiola revealed (via BBC Sport).

“He shows every training session his leadership, arriving on time, living the job. He can play holding midfield defensively too in games like against Burnley last season when you need physicality.

“He is so intelligent, so clever and can handle the pressure really well.”

Gundogan ‘can do everything’, says Guardiola
Guardiola continued: “He can show again and again and again the quality, importance and his commitment to all of us.

“Not just scoring goals, he has the momentum and he can do everything.

“I told the club [to extend his contract]. Nobody knows what will happen. Hopefully he will stay.”

Arsenal are not the only major side to have been tipped to sign Gundogan. Barcelona are also keeping tabs on his situation and will swoop in if City fail to organise a new deal.

It is now up to the City hierarchy to sit down with Gundogan and meet his demands in terms of contract length and value.

They may be slightly concerned about Gundogan’s age given the fact he is in the twilight years of his career. However, in recent weeks the leader has shown he can win matches for City on his own, which is something Guardiola cannot do without.

Meanwhile, an elite Premier League star has been urged to ‘forget Arsenal’ and link up with Guardiola at City instead.

Pep Guardiola
Ilkay Gundogan
Related Articles
Guardiola laughing as most important Arsenal man incredibly tipped to join Man City
Steve Pearson
19 Jun 2024
Guardiola laughing as most important Arsenal man incredibly tipped to join Man City
Pep Guardiola
Guardiola rules out Barcelona return but admits ‘clubs will speak’ about £60m Man City star
Ben Stewart
10 Jun 2024
Guardiola rules out Barcelona return but admits ‘clubs will speak’ about £60m Man City star
Manchester City
Barcelona
Pep Guardiola: Man City successor ‘conversations held’ as chief speaks out on 115 FFP charges
James Marshment
06 Jun 2024
Pep Guardiola: Man City successor ‘conversations held’ as chief speaks out on 115 FFP charges
Manchester City
Pep Guardiola
Jose Mourinho: Pep Guardiola is ‘laughing’ at Man Utd but Tottenham are ‘amazing’
Harry Watkinson
03 Jun 2024
Jose Mourinho: Pep Guardiola is ‘laughing’ at Man Utd but Tottenham are ‘amazing’
Jose Mourinho
Featured Articles
Alphonso Davies, Djordje Petrovic, Miguel Almiron and Jhon Duran
The 10 biggest sales in MLS history and how they fared as Thiago Almada nears new record move
20 hours ago
Ollie Watkins, Archie Gray and Jarrod Bowen
The 10 most expensive Championship to Premier League transfers after Archie Gray joins Tottenham
02 Jul 2024
Sergio Ramos, Memphis Depay and Marcos Alonso.
Every La Liga player whose contract expired at the end of the 2023-24 season
02 Jul 2024
Dan Ashworth will have some big decisions to make at Man Utd
Dan Ashworth’s Man Utd inbox: Replacing Casemiro, setting recruitment structure, Ten Hag contract…
02 Jul 2024
Manchester United
Marc Guiu playing for Barcelona
Marc Guiu: Why Chelsea have signed the ‘unstoppable’ Barcelona striker and everything you need to know about him
02 Jul 2024
Chelsea
Paper Talk
Arne Slot is determined to sign Nico Williams and Adrien Rabiot for Liverpool
Euro Paper Talk: Outstanding double Liverpool deal on as Slot ‘breaks bank’ for winger, midfielder; PSG want Leeds star to replace Mbappe
6 hours ago
Man Utd could swap Jadon Sancho for Federico Chiesa
Euro Paper Talk: Man Utd to bring in stellar 51-cap winger as swap deal talks begin, Arsenal given Barcelona transfer belief
02 Jul 2024
Valencia and Georgia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili and Bayern Munich and Germany star Joshua Kimmich are wanted by Liverpool boss Arne Slot
Euro Paper Talk: Liverpool explode into lead for Germany midfielder as Slot picks Alisson heir; Tottenham target €40m Real Madrid attacker
01 Jul 2024
Exclusives
Shandon Baptiste is wanted by Luton Town
Luton in advanced talks to sign former Brentford man who’ll help replace Premier League duo
1 hour ago
Leeds United captain Liam Cooper has failed to agree a new deal
Exclusive: Liam Cooper expected to leave Leeds as stalemate over new deal is revealed
2 hours ago
Leeds United
Dan Ashworth soon hopes to agree a deal to bring Joshua Zirkzee to Manchester United
Sources: Man Utd ‘very confident’ of signing dazzling 42-goal striker as truths on stunning Chelsea raid emerge
3 hours ago
Manchester United
Pundits
Thomas Tuchel has been tipped to replace Sean Dyche at Everton
Everton tipped to appoint elite manager Man Utd snubbed in shock move
8 hours ago
Everton
The form of England captain Harry Kane at Euro 2024 will be a cause for alarm for Gareth Southgate and Bayern Munich, Dietmar Hamann has claimed
Kane told he’s England’s ‘main problem’ with Southgate urged to axe ‘tap-in merchant’ for Euro 2024 quarter-final
11 hours ago
Bruno Guimaraes, Sean Longstaff
Newcastle transfers: Howe encouraged to sell star for ‘a lot of money’ and improve side
01 Jul 2024
Newcastle United
Planet Sport Network
PlanetSport
Football365
TEAMtalk
PlanetF1
Planet Football
PlanetRugby
LoveRugbyLeague
Tennis365
Golf365
Cricket365
Tipstrr
FemaleFirst
Planet Sport Group
Planet Sport Partners
TEAMtalk Info
Social
TEAMtalk
© Planet Sport Limited 2024 • All Rights Reserved

BREAKING [🎖️]: Joshua Kimmich is hell-bent on joining Pep Guardiola at MManchester City

Kimmich is desperate to be reunited with Guardiola – and has told his representatives he wants to head to the Etihad ahead of anywhere else.

[via Daily Star Sport ]

Home
Mail+
News
Royals
U.S.
Sport
TV&Showbiz
Australia
Femail
Health
Science
Money
Video
Travel
Podcasts
Shopping
Discount Codes
Search
Cookie Policy
Login | Join now
Desktop site
Sport
Man City are ‘set to sign Savio on a five-year deal’ from fellow City Football Group side Troyes – as Pep Guardiola’s team prepare to make the 20-year-old their first summer signing
9 comments

+
6
View gallery
18:21 BST 02 Jul 2024, updated 20:33 BST 02 Jul 2024
By Ed Carruthers
Man City have told Savio they ‘intend to make him part of their first team’
Savio played a huge part in helping Girona finish third in LaLiga last season
LISTEN to It’s All Kicking Off! EUROS DAILY: Why do England look ‘miserable’ and like they are split into ‘two factions’?
Manchester City are preparing to make their first acquisition of the 2024 summer transfer window, with the Premier League champions set to sign Savio, also known as Savinho, on a five-year contract, according to reports.

ADVERTISEMENT
Pep Guardiola’s side are yet to make a move in the market, but according to The Athletic, are preparing to sign the 20-year-old winger from fellow City Group club, Troyes.

The outlet adds that Guardiola’s side have ‘informed the youngster of their intention for him to become a part of their first-team plans next season.’

The winger, who hails from the municipality of Sao Mateus in Brazil, graduated from the Atletico Miniero youth academy before moving to Troyes in 2022.

Despite joining the French outfit, Savio has not made a single competitive appearance for Troyes, having been sent out on loan to play for PSV Eindhoven and Girona.

Manchester City are eyeing up a move to sign Brazil winger Savio (pictured) this summer
+
6
View gallery
Manchester City are eyeing up a move to sign Brazil winger Savio (pictured) this summer
The 20-year-old (centre, top) is on the books at Troyes but spent last season on loan at Girona
+
6
View gallery
The 20-year-old (centre, top) is on the books at Troyes but spent last season on loan at Girona
He could become Pep Guardiola’s (pictured) first signing of the summer transfer window
+
6
View gallery
He could become Pep Guardiola’s (pictured) first signing of the summer transfer window
Podcast
All episodes

PODCAST: Are the England team buying into Southgate’s style of play?
PODCAST: Are the England team buying into Southgate’s style of play?

EUROS DAILY: Do you love or loathe ‘main character’ Cristiano Ronaldo?
EUROS DAILY: Do you love or loathe ‘main character’ Cristiano Ronaldo?

‘England don’t look like a team, they’ve got away with one again’
‘England don’t look like a team, they’ve got away with one again’

PODCAST: Time for England to step it up as judgement day arrives
PODCAST: Time for England to step it up as judgement day arrives

PODCAST: ‘Ronaldo never accepted him’: Why Ralf Rangnick failed
PODCAST: ‘Ronaldo never accepted him’: Why Ralf Rangnick failed
Play on
Apple
Spotify
Last season he made 41 appearances for the LaLiga side, returning 11 goals and 10 assists, helping Girona finish third in the Spanish top flight and secure a berth in Europe next season.

Read More
EXCLUSIVE
EUROS DAILY, England look like ‘two factions’ and it would be ‘NEGLIGENCE’ to play the same team
article image
Savio has reaped the rewards of his excellent form, earning himself a call-up to the Brazil national squad this year, where he made his debut against England at Wembley.

He has gone on to win five caps, notably scoring in Brazil’s 4-1 Copa America victory against Paraguay on Saturday.

Troyes, meanwhile, have suffered back-to-back relegations in the past two seasons, with the club plummeting to the French third division after being relegated from Ligue 2 this summer.

It appears Man City may have been considering a swoop for the 20-year-old winger since December of last year, with rumours circulating that the club were interested in buying the winger from the French outfit.

Arsenal have also previously shown an interest in signing the Brazilian wonderkid back in 2022.

Last season Savio made 41 appearances for Girona, returning 11 goals and 10 assists
+
6
View gallery
Last season Savio made 41 appearances for Girona, returning 11 goals and 10 assists
He also scored for Brazil on Saturday in their 4-1 win against Paraguay in the Copa America
+
6
View gallery
He also scored for Brazil on Saturday in their 4-1 win against Paraguay in the Copa America
Meanwhile, Mail Sport understands James McAtee is scheduled to join Guardiola’s side on their pre-season tour of the United States.

ADVERTISEMENT
It comes amid interest from Chelsea and other Premier League rivals, with Enzo Maresca having previously attempted to acquire the midfielder during his spell as Leicester boss.

Share or comment on this article: Man City are ‘set to sign Savio on a five-year deal’ from fellow City Football Group side Troyes – as Pep Guardiola’s team prepare to make the 20-year-old their first summer signing
1
shares
9 comments
Home
Showbiz
Femail
Sport
DON’T MISS

Fans praise ‘classy’ Romania as picture of how they left their dressing room after Euro 2024 exit at the hands of the Netherlands goes viral

Turkey keeper Mert Gunok pulls off ‘Gordon Banks-esque’ save in the 94th minute to help his nation dramatically reach the quarter-finals of Euro 2024

Katie Boulter begins her Wimbledon challenge by beating unseeded Tatjana Maria – with customised ‘strawberries and cream nails’

Jude Bellingham says he felt ‘like Cristiano Ronaldo’ when scoring his stunning overhead kick vs Slovakia ‘Ronaldo’s was better’

Andrey Rublev hits himself SEVEN times with his racquet in furious row at Wimbledon before crashing out Defeat for the Russian
© Associated Newspapers Ltd
Contact usAbout MailOnline
View desktop siteAdvertise with us
SyndicationHow to complain
Privacy & cookiesCookie Settings
Do not sell my infoTerms
Subscription termsDiscount codes
Mail Subscriptions Help & FAQs
[7/3, 19:35] Man City Updates: OU pledge Gatorade Oklahoma Softball Player of the Year