As things currently stand, Liverpool have about a 1 in 3, or 29% chance of qualifying for the Champions League, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight odds. These odds were down to the single digits last week, but drastically improved as Liverpool extended their winning streak, and Manchester United, Newcastle, and Brighton all dropped points.

This weekend, including Liverpool’s Monday night clash against Leicester City, could prove to be make-or-break for keeping our Champions League hopes alive.

When Liverpool started their winning run, currently at 6 matches, 71 points seemed impossibly far away, especially after this turbulent campaign. Now, it’s just 3 wins away, and all in matches Liverpool should be expected to win.

To me, the biggest question was always whether Liverpool would get to 71, not whether it would be enough. That is still a big if, and probably the biggest factor keeping Liverpool’s odds under 30%. Because over the last 10 seasons, 71 points has usually been enough to secure Top 4. Indeed, the average point tally for the 4th spot over the last 10 years is, wait for it, 71.4 points.

In 7 of the last 10 seasons, 71 points were enough to qualify for Champions League. And it would have been enough in each of the last 5 seasons. The only outliers are 16/17 (unlucky Arsenal), 13/14 (unlucky Everton), and 12/13 (unlucky Spurs). (Side note: Liverpool finished 4th in 17/18 2ith 75 points, but could have secured Top 4 with 70 points).

Even more encouraging for the Reds, in all but one of those seasons, the 4th placed team had a better goal differential than anyone outside of the top 4. Only Chelsea in 19/20 finished 4th with a worse goal difference than 5th placed Leicester City.

As things stand, Liverpool have a much better goal difference than 4th placed United (+25 to +7, no doubt helped by the 14 goal swing in a certain match that will live long in the memories). And although Liverpool are 7 goals behind Newcastle, that’s not an impossible gap to close, particularly if Liverpool win the 3 remaining matches and Newcastle drop enough points to make the goal difference matter.

If Liverpool win out, Manchester United will need to win 3 of their last 4. Not impossible, but still a tall order for a team averaging 1.85 points per game over the season. It’s an easier road for Newcastle, realistically only needing 6 points from their remaining 4 games (again, unless goal differential comes into play).

Liverpool have another advantage: they are now in a position to put real scoreboard pressure on the teams above them. Should United fail to win, or Newcastle lose, Liverpool could go above one or both of them on Monday night.

As we have seen in a few previous last day Champions League qualifications, Liverpool might not need to win out (as was the case in both 17/18 and 20/21), but they need to make the other teams fear that they will.

Three wins should do it. If not, we can add our names to the list of “the unlucky.” But finishing the season with 9 straight wins and unbeaten in 11 is no small feat. Regardless of whether it’s enough, that bodes well for next season.

Let’s win out and see where the chips fall.

READ NEXT

Dean Smith has told his Leicester players exactly where they stand after cancelling their day off this week.

The squad were called in on Tuesday after Monday’s 5-3 defeat at Fulham left them third bottom and two points from Premier League safety.

Smith chaired a meeting at the Foxes’ Seagrave training base and believes the squad took any messages on board – but will only get confirmation when they host Liverpool on Monday.

“It was due to be a day off but I don’t like things lingering. We came in and sorted it. I thought it went well, the proof will be on Monday,” he said.

“I’ve always been brought up in this game that you can’t change what’s happened, what you can do it learn from it and correct it and move on quickly.

“There’s no point us worrying about the Fulham game for two or three more days.

“I wanted to get it put to bed. I knew very quickly when I watched the game back what the errors were for the goals and the chances that we conceded.

“It was a case of making sure we got that out there very quickly and spoke to the players and then we could move on from there.

“I did the talking and told them what I expected in certain situations of the Fulham game, what we needed to do better and what we will do better going forward.”

Meanwhile, Smith insists Leicester cannot be written off in their fight for survival with just three games left.

He said: “We were written off six games ago and all of a sudden Leeds and Everton were written off and now Everton aren’t. The game can change very quickly.

“Monday was our Boomtown Rats (I Don’t Like Mondays) day, next time it will be someone else.

“My job is to rationalise what happened. We came in the following day so we could put the game to bed and rationalise it.

“The players understand what happened and the other coaches’ thoughts and we’ve moved on.

“It was a blow, only after this game on Monday will we know how big a blow it was. You can’t change it but what you can do is correct it and move forward.”