Liverpool has  signed Thiago Alcântara

Liverpool has  signed Thiago Alcântara

Liverpool have agreed to a deal to sign Thiago Alcantara from Bayern Munich.
Everyone stay calm — it’s happening.

Liverpool have agreed with a fee with Bayern Munich for the transfer of Thigao Alcantara (£20 million with a possible £5 million in add-ons), according to various reports. With Liverpool and the player having already agreed to personal terms, the deal should be completed in no time.

Adding Thiago pushes Liverpool’s transfer business to a whole new stratosphere. Think about it: When was the last time Liverpool signed a world-class player from one of Europe’s elite powerhouses? And when was the last time they signed a world-class player from one of Europe’s powerhouses that the powerhouse wanted to keep? It has happened in the modern era.

(You could argue about Ian Rush’s return from Juventus, but the club were fine for him to leave; perhaps Paul Ince on his return to English football from AC Milan. Perhaps.)

Ever since the 90s, Liverpool have signed players on the precipice of greatness: Fernando Torres, Luis Suarez, Xabi Alonso, Mohamed Salah, and an and on. They have rarely, if ever, landed a world-class star at the apex of his powers from one of Europe’s biggest teams.

The closest examples are likely Vigil van Dijk, Alisson Becker and Salah. All were immediately world-class, but all signed from Europe’s second or third-tier or were even overlooked by other ranking members of Europe’s elite.

The importance of this moment — in that context alone — cannot be overstated. As I’ve stated in these pages before: Thiago isn’t just good at what he does, he’s the very the best. And what’s just as interesting about the deal is that Liverpool’s transfer structure stuck to its core tenants in securing this deal.

Moneyball” is a term that gets tossed around so often that it has come dangerously close to losing all of its actual meaning. No doubt as you’ve followed the steady drumbeat of Thiago speculation, you’ve seen the phrase cited over and over again. Or, in some instances, the Liverpool-centric Moneyball synonym: “the model”.

He doesn’t fit the model. That’s not how Liverpool operate. That’s not something Michael Edwards would do. You have heard it over and over again throughout the long, drawn out, protracted, please-make-it-stop Thiago saga. At its core, all “Moneyball” — or “the model” — means is taking advantage of an inefficiency in the marketplace, and finding players that are either underrated or cheaper than they should be — ideally both.

Indeed, a whole bunch of Liverpool signed during the leap from an almost-maybe side into the all-conquering machine they became were the second or third choices of the decision-makers at the time.

Liverpool have never looked at a player of Thiago’s ilk before — older, a patchy injury record — because they’ve never been able to lure someone like Thiago before — a world-class midfielder who would comfortably fit into any time in world football.

Yes, Thiago is 29. Yes, his injury record ranges from awful to concerning, depending on your perspective. But he is also one of Europe’s most accomplished, complete midfielders, someone with a world-class skill-set to back up his world-leading reputation. He is a dash of Xavi, Busquets and Iniesta all rolled into one: A metronome at the base of midfield who can also get on the ball, drive, beat a man, and dictate the tempo between the lines. He is a rare, one-of-a-kind type of player.

When Pep Guardiola arrived in Munich seeking to transplant the Barcelona model to Bayern, his transfer policy was simple: “Thiago oder nicht.” Thiago or nothing. It became a public and private mantra that he hammered away at over and over again until the Bavarian club was able to secure the player’s signature. He knew Thiago was something a little bit special.

Thiago struggled with injuries throughout the early part of Guardiola’s tenure, but he has since gone on to become the player the manager envisioned, the kind you could build a Champions League winner around. Thiago has been the most active “on-ball” player in the Bundesliga over the past three seasons. He has received more passes and had more pass attempts (and completions) than any player in the Bundesliga on a per 90 basis over that time frame. He also leads the league in ball recoveries in opponents half over that time, as well as pass completions in the final third. At 29, he has evolved into the peak version of himself — a unique self.

vacilate between the role of a conductor in a single pivot or sidekick in a double pivot, who is the thing the best team in Europe is built around.

You only have to look to Liverpool’s nearest Premier League rivals for the answer. Last year, Man City signed Rodri, a deep-lying for £63 million. Rodri is 23-years-old with a limited injury record. Thiago is 29-years-old with a patchy injury record. But to argue Thiago would be half the player of Rodri right now or over the next two or three seasons would be wrong.

Rodri had a fine debut season in the Premier League (not an easy thing to do when moving from the more static Spanish league), but he wasn’t the best deep-lying midfielder in his league. His base numbers were so-so; his nerdy metrics (xGBuildUp, xGChain) run right alongside what Fernandinho offered from the same spot a year earlier — more so an indicator of City’s goal-scoring output and everyone-gets-a-touch mentality than individual excellence

midfielders in the world. A bargain.

And that’s all the model is: Chase value; find bargains.

The issue with the old model is that Liverpool were chasing City and the rest of Europe’s upper-class. They had to mine diamonds. They had to find the value at Roma and Southampton and Hull.

Now, they have arrived. With that comes fresh challenges: a greater difficulty negotiating knock-down prices, higher wage demands from newbies (Hello, Timo Werner), and a dearth of players who could actually improve the first team, and fewer still who would be happy to sit on the bench and miss out on all the fun (Hello again, Timo!). But it also opens up exciting new possibilities: a chance to gamble on a player or two, the ability to attract players who would not have been interested as recently as three years ago.

Thiago falls into that latter camp. So while the old model indicates a deal doesn’t make a ton of sense, it’s time to consider what the updated model might look like. Liverpool have never lured a player of Thiago’s statue at the peak of his powers to Anfield because they’ve never been able to attract such a player. Now, through a confluence of success and Jurgen Klopp’s style and personality, they’ve been able to add the best deep-lying midfielder in the game. And they did so without breaking the model, but by adhering to its most base principle.