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Real Madrid vs Man City prediction, odds, stats, best bets for Champions League quarterfinal first leg
Author Photo
Kyle Bonn
08-04-2024
•
9 min read
Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr of Real Madrid and Kevin de Bruyne of Man City split
Getty Images
Real Madrid and Manchester City meet in the Champions League knockout stage for the third straight season as Los Blancos will host Pep Guardiola’s gang at the Bernabeu on Tuesday.
The two sides have split the last two meetings, and on both occasions, the winner would go on to lift the trophy. In 2022, Real Madrid turned around a 4-3 first leg deficit with a 3-1 win at home in the second leg to reach the semifinals. The following year, Man City clobbered Real Madrid 4-0 at home in the second leg to book a place in the final.
Oddly, while the two clubs both enter sporting lengthy unbeaten runs, neither side comes into this matchup in particularly lights-out form.
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Real Madrid have not lost to anyone not named Atletico Madrid all year, but they’ve played to four draws since the start of February, including three of them at home. Meanwhile, Man City haven’t been beaten in any competition in 2024, but they face a deficit in the Premier League title race as Erling Haaland is struggling through a goal slump.
USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Real Madrid vs Man City and bet Champions League matches
Real Madrid vs Man City odds
As defending treble winners, Manchester City are slight favourites on the road at the Bernabeu here, but in truth, it’s a tough one to call, and the betting market reflects that, with both sides given plus moneyline odds to emerge victorious.
Goals are expected as well, but not too many — the poor goal scoring form of Erling Haaland plus the hit-or-miss Real Madrid attack has the market a bit muted as well.
8:00p
MCI
MAD
SPREAD
PK
(-130)
PK
(-105)
MONEY
LINE
+155
+245
+180
OVER
UNDER
> 2.5
(-125)
< 2.5
(-110)
DraftKings
(USA)
Real Madrid win +190
Draw +245
Man City win +145
Both teams
to score Y/N -180 / +145
Over / Under
2.5 goals -140 / +100
Man City
to advance +170
Real Madrid
to advance -215
Real Madrid vs Man City prediction
Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (+175)
Score prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Man City
To put it plainly, Manchester City are as vulnerable in European play as they have ever been. While Real Madrid don’t exactly feel like Champions League title contenders either, just based on their recent performances, they aren’t as down in the dumps as City. There’s a real nervousness around City supporters that they could follow up their famous treble with a trophy-less season.
Pep Guardiola has managed to keep the ship afloat well amidst injuries and form issues, and Phil Foden has carried this team when necessary, but it feels as if a defeat has been coming for some time. They certainly won’t find themselves out of the two-legged matchup, but walking away from the Bernabeu with a result would be impressive.
Real Madrid vs Man City match facts
Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Kickoff time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
Location: Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain)
Referee: Francois Letexier (FRA), VAR: Jerome Brisard (FRA)
Last meeting: Man City 4-0 Real Madrid (May 17, 2023 | Champions League)
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Real Madrid vs Man City key stats
Erling Haaland has only faced three ‘Big 5’ European clubs two or more times without scoring a goal in any competition: Real Madrid, Stuttgart, and his current side Man City. The most times Haaland has faced any club across all competitions without scoring is four, both in the Norwegian top flight.
With 18 goals each, Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr are joint-fourth on Real Madrid’s all-time leading goal scorer list in the Champions League. But they have a way to go to catch the third-place individual, Raul, who collected 66 career Champions League goals. Karim Benzema is second with 78, and Cristiano Ronaldo is first with 101.
Jude Bellingham’s four goals and four assists in the Champions League this year have him sitting joint-second in the competition for total goals plus assists. He sits one behind leader Harry Kane, who has six goals and three assists for Bayern Munich.
Real Madrid vs Man City team news
The only two injured Real Madrid players at the moment are those who suffered ACL tears earlier in the season. David Alaba is done for the season after doing his cruciate ligament in December, while Thibaut Courtois nearly made it all the way back before a subsequent meniscus tear has him down until May. Eder Militao, who tore his ACL last summer, has only just made his return and will be brought back slowly, likely not yet ready for a starting role.
Manchester City’s injured list is similarly short, but those who do appear are critical players. Most notably, Kyle Walker is absent with a hamstring issue, and his absence will be heavily felt on the right flank against Madrid superstar Vinicus Jr. Also ruled out is Nathan Ake who is only just starting to make his return from a calf injury suffered last month. The bit of good news is that goalkeeper Ederson is doing “much better” according to Pep Guardiola, and could be available for this match, while Josko Gvardiol is a doubt.
Real Madrid vs Man City best bet
Pick: Phil Foden anytime goal scorer
Odds: +290 (FanDuel)
Sure, we expect Real Madrid to come away with a victory, but the value here is just too good to pass up for the Premier League’s most in-form attacker. While Erling Haaland slumps (by his standards, at least), Phil Foden is collecting Haaland-like volume in front of goal.
The 23-year-old has two Premier League hat-tricks since the start of February, and has been good for his end product in terms of chances, collecting 39 shots in nine games across that span worth 4.47 xG. He’s been able to translate that great Premier League form to Europe as well, scoring in four of his six Champions League appearances to this point, including the road win at Copenhagen and one in the group stage at RB Leipzig.
Foden was rested over the weekend against Crystal Palace, so he should be fully fit for this vitally important game. Haaland’s plus-money goal scoring odds are also intriguing given his prolific Champions League history, but the value on Foden is simply too enticing to shy away from.
Real Madrid vs Man City prop bet
Pick: Under 3.0 total goals
Odds: -170 (DraftKings)
While recent matchups between these two teams have seen goals racked up on both ends, there’s a few reasons why this match could be different. First, the last time Real Madrid hosted Man City in the first leg of a UCL matchup was last year, and the match finished in a 1-1 draw.
Additionally, stars on both sides are in questionable goal scoring form. While Vinicius Jr is on a hot streak, Rodrygo has begun to slump. Rodrygo bagged a brace against Athletic Club last time out with Vinicus suspended, but even with that pair, he has just three La Liga goals in 2024, and did not find the net in either Round of 16 leg against RB Leipzig.
Meanwhile, Erling Haaland is toiling through the toughest slump of his Man City career, with six goals in 12 matches across the Premier League and Champions League since returning from injury in late January. While those numbers are still excellent for most strikers, by Haaland’s astronomical standards, they’re quite muted.
And yet…it’s just too risky to pick under 2.5 goals at even money. The value here is putrid, but if you’re looking for a good parlay option, this is it. It’s hard to see this match turning into a barnburner, but the safety of the half-goal is critical.
Real Madrid vs Man City flier bet
Pick: Vinicius Jr first goal scorer
Odds: +550 (DraftKings)
There’s one man who sits above the rest at Real Madrid when it comes to dangerous chances, and that is Vinicius Jr. Rodrygo takes over when his fellow Brazilian is out or having an off day, but Vinicius is the first name up on the list of Real Madrid attacking options.
What’s more is Vinicius has been an early option for Real Madrid recently. Since returning from injury in mid-January, Vinicus has scored in six La Liga games and another in the Champions League. Of those seven matches, he has been first goal scorer in four of them, including in each of the last three, and he has been his team’s first goal scorer in two others after Madrid fell behind.
Real Madrid vs Man City live stream, TV channel
TV channel Streaming
USA TUDN, UniMas Fubo USA, Paramount+, Univision NOW, ViX
Canada — DAZN
UK TNT Sports 2 discovery+
This Champions League quarterfinal first leg will be streamed in English exclusively on Paramount+, as CBS Sports decided the Arsenal vs Bayern Munich game will be televised on the network instead.
Real Madrid vs Man City will, however, be televised in Spanish on TUDN and UniMas, which are available to stream on Fubo. Finally, there is also a Spanish-language stream available on ViX.
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In the UK, the match will be televised domestically on TNT Sports 2, and streamed on the broadcaster’s dedicated streaming service discovery+. In Canada, the exclusive broadcast provider for the UEFA Champions League is DAZN, who will stream this as they do every game across this year’s UCL competition.
Author(s)
Kyle Bonn Photo
Kyle Bonn
Kyle Bonn is a soccer content producer for The Sporting News.
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Man City send message to Premier League amid fresh Everton points deduction
Manchester City are due to have their case regarding the 115 Premier League finance charges heard later this year, allegations they deny in full.
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ByIsaac Johnson
17:15, 8 APR 2024
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Manchester City’s PSR case vs the Premier League is set to begin later this year
Manchester City’s PSR case vs the Premier League is set to begin later this year (Image: James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)
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Manchester City have reiterated their insistence that they have “irrefutable evidence” to back up their denial of all 115 financial charges levelled at them by the Premier League.
The independent panel hearing to review the case is due to start later this year, albeit Premier League chief Richard Masters refused to disclose the exact date when asked by a government committee in January.
The League accuses City of illicit financing and un-cooperation in the period between 2009 and 2018 – allegations the club strongly denies in full. A responding Man City statement in February 2023 said the club was “surprised” by the claims given “extensive engagement and vast amount of detailed materials” has been provided to league officials.
ALSO READ: Man City player ratings vs Crystal Palace as Jack Grealish and Kevin De Bruyne star
ALSO READ: Pep Guardiola bold gambles help Man City add to Real Madrid nerves
Filing their financial accounts last week, Manchester City have reiterated their complete denial stance by referencing part of their initial statement in a Companies House report.
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The document reads: “On 6 February 2023, in accordance with Premier League Rule W.21.1, the Premier League referred a number of alleged breaches of the Premier League Rules by Manchester City Football Club to a Commission under Premier League Rule W3.4.
“In February 2023, in response to the charges, the cub issued a public statement that it welcomes the review of this matter by an independent Commission, to impartially consider the comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence that exists in support of its position.”
In the meantime, the Premier League has been under the spotlight regarding other Profit & Sustainability Rules [PSR] matters. Everton were handed a record points-deduction in November, which was reduced from 10 to six in February upon appeal.
However, the Toffees have today been handed a second points sanction – this time two points – for breaching PSR under new fast-track penalty regulations that were implemented this season.
Nottingham Forest were also charged last month for breaking PSR rules within the same three-year financial cycle, and the club have decided to appeal the penalty.
The Premier League is expected to make whole-scale changes to its finance rules this summer amid fears that non ‘big six’ clubs are being penalised for trying to cut the competition gap. The case against City would still stand regardless of any new rule changes.
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Former Real Madrid coach Solari takes over at America
Football
Former Real Madrid coach Solari takes over at America
29/12/2020 – 19:16
After struggling at Real Madrid, Santiago Solari has returned to football as Club America head coach.
Santiago Solari has taken on his first coaching role since his unsuccessful Real Madrid stint as the new boss of Club America.
A statement on Tuesday confirmed Solari’s appointment for the 2021 Liga MX Clausura, this year renamed the Torneo Guard1anes 2021.
America president Santiago Banos said: “We recognised that Solari has an ideal profile for our sports project.
“Throughout his career as a footballer and manager, he has been able to successfully meet the demands and objectives of teams like Club America, whose only goal is the title.”
Solari replaced Julen Lopetegui at the Santiago Bernabeu in the tumultuous 2018-19 campaign that followed Madrid’s most recent Champions League triumph and Zinedine Zidane’s subsequent departure.
Former Argentina midfielder Solari, who spent the best part of his playing career in Madrid, was appointed by Los Blancos – initially on an interim basis – in October 2018, having already been at the club as the Castilla coach.
He lasted only 32 matches until March 2019, winning the Club World Cup but departing shortly after a shock Champions League exit to Ajax as Zidane was reappointed.
Solari has been out of the game since but has been handed a return by America.
The Mexican giants are aiming to add to their record haul of 13 Liga MX titles following their departure at the quarter-final stage of the Torneo Guard1anes 2020.
Former Mexico coach Miguel Herrera, who won two of those championships, was sacked by America last week after a CONCACAF Champions League semi-final defeat to Los Angeles FC during which he clashed with Ante Razov, an assistant for the MLS side.
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(Image) Rumoured Liverpool 3rd kit for next season emerges online; contains one peculiar feature
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Posted by Liam Togher1 hour ago
(Image) Rumoured Liverpool 3rd kit for next season emerges online; contains one peculiar feature
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An image showing Liverpool’s rumoured third kit for the 2024/25 season has been leaked online, and it shows one rather interesting feature.
The Reds will soon enter the fifth year of their partnership with Nike, and their 15th with Standard Chartered as the main shirt sponsor.
LFC fan @KB2X on X (formerly Twitter) posted an image of a kit that we could be wearing next season, a predominantly white number with a grey pattern incorporated throughout, along with mainly red trim and collar (via The Kitman).
However, the standout feature of the rumoured shirt is the peculiar orientation of the ubiquitous Nike logo, with the swoosh rotated 90 degrees anti-clockwise to point upwards rather than to the right.
With the summer gradually drawing nearer, it won’t be much longer before we discover for certain whether or not this’ll actually be Liverpool’s third kit for the 2024/25 campaign. If indeed it is, it should be interesting to see what reaction it gets from the fan base.
You can view the rumoured LFC shirt below, via @KB2X on X (formerly Twitter):
#LFC 3rd 24/25 pic.twitter.com/eGBTWGllA4
— KB2x (@KB2X) April 8, 2024
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