The Premier League championship race: Will Arsenal, Liverpool, or Manchester City win?

After the drama of the draw between Liverpool and Manchester City at Anfield on Sunday, it is a good time to take stock of a thrilling three-way Premier League title race with 10 games to go.

That gives fans far too much time to over-analyse every single permutation – so BBC Sport, with data experts Nielsen’s Gracenote, help to break down the title race match-by-match to see who is projected for glory or heartbreak…

Pep Guardiola’s City side are in typically formidable post-Christmas form as they aim for an English top-flight record of four consecutive titles. They have 10 wins from 13 league games since December’s 1-0 loss to Aston Villa.

As for Liverpool, the 3-1 loss to Arsenal on 4 February remains their only league defeat in nine games so far in 2024. Jurgen Klopp’s team still have a trip to Goodison Park for the Merseyside derby to fit into a busy schedule.

On Arsenal, although they end this weekend top of the table, Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Nielsen’s Gracenote says their Euro Club Index simulations have the title battle as a “two-horse race”, rating City and Liverpool higher as well as the Gunners having “trickier” fixtures.

He said: “Arsenal have six matches left against teams in the Premier League’s top half but five of those are away from home. Manchester City and Liverpool also both have six matches remaining against teams in the top half of the Premier League, but four of City’s are at home and half of Liverpool’s are.”

There have only been a handful of three-way Premier League title races where the teams have been separated by just two points towards the end of a 38-game season.

2013-14: By as late as 6 May 2014 only two points separated Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea, but City won their game in hand to leapfrog a stumbling Liverpool – characterised by Steven Gerrard’s infamous slip and Crystal Palace’s comeback – and snatch the title.

2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Man Utd a further point back. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were part-way through a run of 11 consecutive wins and sealed the title by beating United at Old Trafford.

1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games left Man Utd were level on 61 points with Newcastle and Liverpool were on 59 points in third. Despite having played two games more, Sir Alex Ferguson’s side saw off the challenge of Kevin Keegan’s Magpies.

Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances. These are simulated thousands of times to create the probabilities.

Gracenote estimates the probability of each match outcome – win, draw or loss – using their Euro Club Index and then simulates the rest of the season a million times to create the probabilities.

Arsenal’s title challenge started to fade at the same stage last year.

Gleave says: “Manchester City came into their own at the end of last season when the title race was transformed from a 50/50 battle at the beginning of April into a near-certain league title for Pep Guardiola’s team less than a month later.”

What if they finish level on points?

Going into Sunday’s game, the chance that at least two of the three title contenders finish level on points at the top of the Premier League was 9.4%, according to simulations run by Gracenote. The chance that all three finished level on points was just 0.5%.

Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.

Whatever happens, there are certain to be plenty of twists and turns between now and the final day of the campaign on 19 May.